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The US-Israel war with Iran has created a delicate balancing act between investing for resilient growth and managing geopolitical volatility. While a "soft landing" remains the baseline for many advanced economies, the landscape has grown more complex following the late-February shocks.
On interest rate watch, the US Fed is expected to maintain a "higher-for-longer" stance to counter inflationary pressures from rising energy cost, and to a lesser extent the new 15% global tariffs. Markets are pricing in a sustained "war premium" in energy. With Brent crude hovering near $100, any further escalation in the Middle East could reignite global supply-side inflation, which may lead to extended high-interest-rate environment and hence leading to a sharp global economic slowdown.
In China, it has largely stayed away from the Middle East war though it has urged US and Israel to de-escalate and stop its aggression against its ally, Iran. China is amongst the most affected countries by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran has allowed some Chinese-flagged oil tankers to transit through. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Success hinges on whether Beijing’s "New Quality Productive Forces" can offset the structural drag of its property sector.
After the February technology sector correction and in this current environment of heightened volatility, we remain highly selective in the technology sector while diversifying across markets, maintaining our disciplined, bottom-up approach to portfolio construction.
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