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Stronger than expected inflation in the US led newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to reinforce expectations that any rate cut is more likely in late 2026 or into 2027. Despite this hawkish view, US equities pushed to fresh highs, led by technology stocks. This period also saw Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s (“SpaceX”) record-setting initial public offering, becoming a focal point for risk appetite and growth sentiment, which further amplified market enthusiasm. In the near term, the success of the SpaceX listing is likely to add further liquidity into space, artificial intelligence (“AI”) infrastructure and adjacent sectors.
Investor sentiment remains heavily concentrated in AI-related and technology names, and some investors view the Asian market as a way to increase exposure at more attractive valuations than US technology leaders. Strong momentum in Asia is led by Korea, Taiwan and Japan, which play a central role in the AI and memory chip supply chain. On the other hand, China continues to lag even with incremental policy support.
In other key markets, UK equities underperformed their peers, and Eurozone technology stocks performed moderately amid weak macroeconomic data, where the pullback in oil prices eased some inflationary pressure. Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions and the current partial normalisation of shipping through the strait weigh on energy prices and inflation expectations.
Against this backdrop, maintaining well-diversified exposure across geographies and themes remains important. We continue to be highly selective in stock selection, adhering to a disciplined, bottom-up approach to portfolio construction that prioritises quality and resilience to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Related Market Outlooks
2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility
Concerns around the durability of AI-related capital expenditure and intensifying competition triggered a sharp sector sell-off after a mid-July peak. Investor sentiment turned more discerning on the back of earnings season, and questions arose regarding how sustainable the AI investment pace is without eating into cash generation. Capital rotated out of semiconductors and into energy, financials and value stocks, shifting to markets and names seen as less exposed to a single-theme correction.
2026 July Market Outlook: Navigating Crosscurrents
Central banks broadly maintained a data-dependent stance through the period and remained watchful even as global energy-driven inflation eased. The Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to price stability even as growth prospects softened, while the European Central Bank similarly balanced improving headline inflation against still-elevated services prices.
2026 May Market Outlook: From Record Highs to Rising Uncertainty—A Selective Path Forward
With inflation still elevated and growth looking uneven across regions, central banks are balancing financial stability and energy-driven price pressures. Expectations for rate cuts have been pushed out or replaced by further tightening of monetary policy. The new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, known to favour rate cuts, faces inflationary pressures in the US economy that work against the dovish narrative, making rate cuts unlikely. Other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have kept its policy unchanged, but with upward revisions to inflation forecasts, investors expect rate hikes this year.
2026 April Market Outlook: From Conflict Shock to Market Strength — What’s Driving the Recovery
Major indices across the countries tumbled in March but abruptly spiked in April upon the announcement of US-Iran peace talks, though the US Navy continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Record highs in the tech-heavy S&P 500 and strong US corporate earnings reaffirm the market’s resilience throughout the conflict, particularly for demand in technology.
2026 March Market Outlook: Markets Under Pressure as Geopolitical Tensions Rise
The US-Israel war with Iran has created a delicate balancing act between investing for resilient growth and managing geopolitical volatility. While a "soft landing" remains the baseline for many advanced economies, the landscape has grown more complex following the late-February shocks.On interest rate watch, the US Fed is expected to maintain a "higher-for-longer" stance to counter inflationary pressures from rising energy cost, and to a lesser extent the new 15% global tariffs. Markets are pricing in a sustained "war premium" in energy. With Brent crude hovering near $100, any further escalation in the Middle East could reignite global supply-side inflation, which may lead to extended high-interest-rate environment and hence leading to a sharp global economic slowdown.