Central banks broadly maintained a data-dependent stance through the period and remained watchful even as global energy-driven inflation eased. The Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to price stability even as growth prospects softened, while the European Central Bank similarly balanced improving headline inflation against still-elevated services prices. Closer to home, the Monetary Authority of Singapore raised its 2026 core inflation forecast on concerns that persistent price pressures could dampen household spending.
The Hormuz disruption has driven inflation fears that outweigh traditional safe-haven demand. Gold and silver have moved in an unusual, counterintuitive pattern, falling rather than rallying as fighting escalated. In equities, investor sentiment shifted markedly as the AI-led rally that dominated the first half of the year gave way to a bout of volatility, prompting some rotation into value and cyclicals. Asian equities showed sharp dispersion rather than uniform resilience. In July 2026, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng emerged as the standout performer on continued strength in Chinese technology and AI names, while South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei slipped from June’s rebound as the memory-chip optimism and AI trade cooled.
Looking ahead, markets remain caught between two competing narratives, a genuine easing of geopolitical and energy-driven inflation pressure, against the risk of renewed hostilities or a resurgence in AI-related volatility, which could quickly reverse recent gains in sentiment and reprice rate expectations. Against this backdrop, we continue to favour a diversified, bottom-up approach that balances exposure to structural AI and technology themes with quality, less crowded names to weather through volatility.
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