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Recently, China has expressed increasing urgency to stabilize its property market and domestic consumption, through stronger-than-usual language from the administration. Given that these were mostly high-level statements, we remain skeptical on the announcement given the Chinese government’s hesitance to implement substantial economic stimulus in recent years.
In the US, we also see that there has been growing interest in value stocks, as investors seek opportunities in undervalued companies amid concentrated gains in companies like the Magnificent Seven. At current valuations, Goldman Sachs has forecasted that the broader S&P500 index will return a mere 3% annually over the next 10 years. We will however remain focused and selective on US opportunities - buying on dips, looking at undervalued stocks or even going into smaller capitalization companies if they have differentiated business models or products. We believe this approach is more sensible under the current conditions of uncertainty in both the global economy and geopolitics heading into 2025.
Related Market Outlooks
2025 May Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility Amid Trade Tensions and Monetary Policy Caution
April began with heightened volatility following the surprise rollout of the “Liberation Day Tariffs,” which included a blanket 10% levy on all imports and steeper country-specific rates. Markets reacted swiftly—equities tumbled, and Treasury yields dropped as risk-off sentiment took hold. A temporary rebound followed the U.S. decision to pause most tariffs, excluding those on China. However, China’s swift retaliation reignited trade tensions, pulling markets lower once again. Despite the volatility and uncertainty, equities have since staged a robust recovery, supported by a tentative trade truce between the two economic powers.
2025 April Market Outlook: Tariff Shocks Rate Dilemmas and China’s Next Move
US tariff announcements have introduced a wave of uncertainty into global markets. While the initial shock caused equities to retreat sharply, sentiment steadied somewhat after the US paused broad-based tariffs for most countries, leaving China as the primary target for higher levies. This erratic policy approach has unsettled businesses and investors alike, with US Treasury yields responding with unusual speed.
2025 March Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Policy Shifts and Economic Uncertainty
US-led trade tariff hikes have introduced significant political and economic uncertainty, primarily through passing higher costs for consumers and businesses, alongside the threat of retaliatory measures from trading partners. This has contributed to market instability and has dampened business optimism.
2025 February Market Outlook: Deepseek Shakes Up AI—Is China’s Tech Rebound Just Beginning?
The launch of Deepseek marks a notable development for China as the startup claims it is significantly more efficient than widespread models developed by US companies. The startup also claims to have developed the model with only US$ 6 million and has made their model publicly available for use globally. This stands in contrast to US technology firms, which have been spending billions of dollars. Additionally, the availability of Deepseek’s model has raised concerns about potential reductions in AI infrastructure investment.
2025 January Market Outlook: Strategies for Navigating a Shifting Global Landscape
The US equity market has benefited from the strength in its economy and leading position in artificial intelligence (“AI”) technologies. This has led to high earnings expectations being baked into stock valuations, which we find to be optimistic given the looming risk of tariffs and the ongoing cooling of the general economy. Some argue that the Trump administration will reduce corporate taxes to boost earnings and control interest rates despite inflation risks. Our view is that timing all these initiatives to benefit the US economy will be challenging and there will likely be knee-jerk reactions to any significant policy announcements, earnings misses and economic data surprises.