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The launch of Deepseek marks a notable development for China as the startup claims it is significantly more efficient than widespread models developed by US companies. The startup also claims to have developed the model with only US$ 6 million and has made their model publicly available for use globally. This stands in contrast to US technology firms, which have been spending billions of dollars. Additionally, the availability of Deepseek’s model has raised concerns about potential reductions in AI infrastructure investment. Our view is that these investments will continue since the US sees AI as a national security issue and will continue to advance their own AI models.
The rise of Deepseek has also brought investor attention back to Chinese technology firms with their share prices rebounding strongly. Despite the meteoric rise, valuations are still at reasonable levels though we do expect profit-taking along the way given the recent sharp rise. We believe the positive shift in China’s stock market is at its early innings given how negative global investors have been on China over the past few years. We will be closely monitoring the outlook from major Chinese technology companies in their coming earnings results, along with key political events such as the upcoming Chinese government’s Two Sessions. These developments could further bolster investors interest in China.
So far, earnings results from most US technology firms that we monitor were only marginally disappointing, yet significant price corrections have followed. We see this as a result of high analyst expectations and stretched valuations, which have amplified volatility even on minor earnings misses. That said, market sentiment remains positive, and with no signs of a recession, we will continue to maintain our positions.
Related Market Outlooks
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2024 December Market Outlook: Balancing Caution and Opportunity Amid Global Economic Shifts
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2024 November Market Outlook: Balancing Chinese Stimulus and U.S. Political Shifts
The Chinese administration have announced their intention to rollout an additional RMB 6 trillion package to support the debt burden of local governments and China’s finance minister also gave forward guidance that they would be introducing new measures to further stabilize the property market. While the headline number of RMB 6 trillion seems substantial, ultimately it was not impressive as the debt swap is intended to occur gradually over the next 3 years. Furthermore, there is uncertainty over how the local governments will spur their respective economies once their debt position improves. A positive note is that there has been some initial rebound in property sales. However, we believe near-term equity valuations in China are likely to remain rangebound until further stimulus measures are announced given the modest earnings results so far.
2024 October Market Outlook: Hong Kong and China Stocks Await Policy Boost as AI Growth Persists in the US
Since the initial surge in the Hong Kong and Chinese stock market, significant profit taking has followed. Despite this, we maintain our view that company valuations in the region remains attractive. The main event that we are monitoring is towards the end of this month, where China holds their Politburo Standing Committee.
2024 September Market Outlook: Tech Stocks Face Headwinds as AI Valuations Come Under Scrutiny
Since the last newsletter, technology stocks continued to underperform as investors began to question the premium valuations that these companies command since the start of the artificial intelligence (“AI”) narrative. There is no doubt that AI will result in long-term productivity gains as more companies begin to announce standalone AI products. Additionally, continued improvements in AI hardware will likely accelerate development going forward.