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The launch of Deepseek marks a notable development for China as the startup claims it is significantly more efficient than widespread models developed by US companies. The startup also claims to have developed the model with only US$ 6 million and has made their model publicly available for use globally. This stands in contrast to US technology firms, which have been spending billions of dollars. Additionally, the availability of Deepseek’s model has raised concerns about potential reductions in AI infrastructure investment. Our view is that these investments will continue since the US sees AI as a national security issue and will continue to advance their own AI models.
The rise of Deepseek has also brought investor attention back to Chinese technology firms with their share prices rebounding strongly. Despite the meteoric rise, valuations are still at reasonable levels though we do expect profit-taking along the way given the recent sharp rise. We believe the positive shift in China’s stock market is at its early innings given how negative global investors have been on China over the past few years. We will be closely monitoring the outlook from major Chinese technology companies in their coming earnings results, along with key political events such as the upcoming Chinese government’s Two Sessions. These developments could further bolster investors interest in China.
So far, earnings results from most US technology firms that we monitor were only marginally disappointing, yet significant price corrections have followed. We see this as a result of high analyst expectations and stretched valuations, which have amplified volatility even on minor earnings misses. That said, market sentiment remains positive, and with no signs of a recession, we will continue to maintain our positions.
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