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Since June, investor sentiment has gradually improved, supported by resilient corporate earnings, stronger-than-expected macroeconomic indicators, and measured progress in trade diplomacy. Despite lingering policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, market conditions have remained relatively calm, with volatility largely contained.
Trade policy continues to be a central concern. The Trump administration’s 90-day pause on tariffs is set to expire on August 1, with proposed tariffs of up to 50% on autos and consumer electronics still under consideration. However, in spite of looming tariff risks, the successful negotiation of bilateral trade agreements - with Japan, the U.K., and South Korea - has helped bolster investor confidence. The U.S. - Japan deal, which includes a reported US$550 billion investment commitment, has further supported sentiments across Asian markets, which benefits from improved trade ties and regional policy coordination.
Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill (BBB Act), which offers generous tax incentives - including permanent R&D deductions and 100% expensing of production property - has provided notable support to the technology, semiconductor, and data center sectors. While the BBB Act raises concerns over fiscal deficits, it has already helped sustain momentum in pro-growth and AI-exposed equities.
In Asia, China’s Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations, underpinned by strong industrial output and a rebound in exports, driven in part by front-loaded shipments ahead of potential new tariffs. However, weakness in retail sales and property investment underscores China’s continued reliance on external demand and industrial production over domestic consumption - raising expectations for further targeted fiscal support in the second half of 2025.
Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic. While U.S. headline CPI rose in June, disinflationary trends are still evident in core components. Profitability remains strong in key sectors, and Asia continues to benefit from trade gains and pro-growth policies. However, with valuation multiples remaining elevated, the upcoming earnings season will play a pivotal role in supporting the valuation premium. With liquidity conditions stable and market volatility subdued, we maintain a disciplined and balanced approach, guided by bottom-up fundamental analysis in our portfolio construction.
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