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The hawkish rate cut signaled the Fed’s caution, even as tariff-related inflation pressures appeared to be fading. November’s jobs report suggested a subdued consumer environment. Unemployment had risen to its highest level since 2021, and retail sales remained unchanged despite Black Friday sales. Though the Trump administration has softened its language on China, recent developments highlight the delicate truce in their trade war. The U.S. has restricted China’s access to technology, such as permitting limited Nvidia chip exports, and formed an international partnership to counter China’s rare earth dominance.
Across Asia, the picture remains mixed. The weaker U.S. dollar alleviates pressure on currency weakness in countries like Indonesia, South Korea, India, and the Philippines. The Bank of Japan have responded to the Fed’s rate cut by raising interest rates by a quarter point in a widely expected decision. In China, the economy continues to be supported by sustained capital inflows and the boom in exports while pivoting away from dependence on U.S. consumers. This was in spite of the property sector slump, missed industrial production expectations, weak retail sales, and unchanging unemployment rates. Measures to drive consumption appear ineffective, and rising trade frictions with countries beyond the U.S are weighing on sentiment.
Investors are increasingly watchful for signs of an AI-driven bubble, including circular financing risks inflating valuations, where such dynamics could unwind abruptly. Against this backdrop, investors face a strategic dilemma - rein in AI exposure ahead of a potential bubble popping, or double down to capitalize on game-changing technology breakthroughs. In response, we are positioning portfolios defensively and broadening exposure to other sectors. This includes increasing allocations to commodities such as silver and gold, which can serve as stores of value, and consumer staples, that tends to offer more resilient demand. We continue to maintain a disciplined, bottom-up fundamental approach in portfolio construction.
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2026 February Market Outlook: From U.S. Policy Turmoil to Mixed Signals Across Asia
The geopolitical scene in the US has been uncertain and volatile. The January jobs report exceeded expectations, though employment gains were largely concentrated in the healthcare sector. Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, has been nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, though this remains to be confirmed by the Senate. In the past week, the Supreme Court has ruled against President Trump’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) tariffs. In return, the Trump administration acted quickly to impose 10% global tariffs, and immediately raised to 15% that will remain effective for 150 days under a separate trade law. These developments have contributed to a weakening US dollar, which is further exacerbated by rising US-Iran military tensions. Gold extended its rally and reached new highs, while silver surrendered most of its gains. Investors remain cautious amid sharp swings in these traditional safe haven assets.
2026 January Market Outlook: A Month That Redirected Market Attention
The New Year began with subdued volatility, but the calm was subsequently shattered by geopolitical events, notably US’s desire to take over Greenland for its strategic Arctic Circle argument. Demand for gold and silver skyrocketed with prices hitting new fresh highs. However, these high precious metal prices can create a range of challenges for precious metal-dependent industries like solar panel makers and EV producers which use silver as part of their components in their production. This may further impact the profitability of the solar panel makers which are already facing an oversupply situation.