洞察
市场展望2024年1月1日1 分钟阅读

2023年12月|市场展望:亚洲成为全球经济转型中的亮点

2023年12月|市场展望:亚洲成为全球经济转型中的亮点

随着 2023 年接近尾声,全球股市整体保持稳定,投资者依旧偏向配置于发达市场。尽管亚太市场亦录得正回报,但在经济数据明显改善的情况下,其表现仍落后于其他地区。这一差异可能源于年底常见的市场因素,例如“税损收割”以及机构投资组合的再平衡与“粉饰门面”等操作。历史经验显示,此类短期波动通常会延续至翌年 1 月,因为基金经理须为年终报告调整仓位。


在发达市场方面,自美联储连续两次会议维持利率不变后,市场情绪显著改善,投资者普遍认为加息周期可能已经结束,从而推动股市上扬。同时,关于美国经济衰退的担忧有所减弱,许多经济学家将预期调整为“软着陆”——经济活动温和放缓,但不出现严重衰退。然而,美国通胀水平仍显著高于美联储 2% 的目标,意味着利率可能在较长时间内维持高位。尽管经济前景仍存在不确定性,特别是在房地产通胀降温的背景下,我们认为虽然衰退风险依旧偏高,但不太可能演变为系统性危机。

中美关系改善为全球情绪带来支撑

在地缘政治方面,中国近期对美国的外交举措带来了积极信号。继上月中国国家主席习近平访美之后,双方均表达了推动和平合作的意愿。中美军事沟通在数月中断后得以恢复,显示中国希望改善与美国的政治关系。

此外,习近平主席与美国顶级企业领袖的会面亦凸显了跨国企业对继续深耕中国市场的信心。例如,万事达卡与中国国家交易处理机构“网联清算”成立合资企业,让万事达卡持卡人可在中国实现无缝支付,显示两国在金融与商业合作方面仍具长期潜力。

尽管上述进展令人鼓舞,但长期降低地缘政治风险仍需美国方面采取更多对等举措。随着 2024 年美国总统大选临近,“中国议题”预计将成为美国政治辩论的核心,双方政党可能都会将中国描述为主要国家安全威胁,以巩固选民基础。在此背景下,中美关系紧张可能持续,而地缘政治风险也预计将在 2024 年呈偏高状态。

全球供应链重组趋势强化经济分化

除美国外,台湾等地区的重要选举亦将对地缘政治布局产生深远影响。随着全球安全风险上升,我们预计企业将逐步调整供应链布局,使资本和业务向被视为更安全、更具政治稳定性的国家转移。经济分化趋势的深化将更有利于那些能够在制造业回流或供应链重塑中保持市场份额与运营效率的企业。

中国:政策持续加码,经济企稳迹象增强

在中国方面,中央经济工作会议为 2024 年确立了明确的稳增长政策框架。政策制定者正通过货币、财政及行政多管齐下的方式进一步提振信心与经济动能。这些政策力度近期持续加强,我们预计未来几个月将有更多措施出台,特别是针对房地产行业风险的支持政策。

亚洲成为全球增长亮点

综合来看,我们继续将亚洲——尤其是中国——视为全球经济增长的主要亮点。较低的利率环境叠加流动性改善,将有助于缓解企业与家庭的财务压力,降低债务负担。在全球经济仍受地缘政治紧张与通胀压力影响的背景下,亚洲展现出更强的韧性,具备推动短期全球增长的良好条件,因而成为投资者布局新兴市场的重要关注点。

总结

总体而言, 尽管全球经济仍存在高度不确定性,但亚洲在积极的政策支持与改善的经济数据推动下,展现出强劲的增长潜力,构成极具吸引力的投资机会。尽管地缘政治风险仍需密切关注,我们相信亚洲将在全球经济格局中继续发挥关键作用。

分享

更多洞察

BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF) Performance as of 16 October 2026
公告2026年10月23日

BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF) Performance as of 16 October 2026

Markets in October Since end September, global equities have faced pressure from higher borrowing costs and growing scrutiny of the returns from AI related spending. Stronger than expected US inflation reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, weighing particularly on technology and semiconductor valuations. Elevated oil prices added further pressure on inflation concerns. Overall, technology-heavy Asian markets bore a greater share of the selling in October’s global tech weakness. Our exposure to Asian equities reflects our focus on the region’s long-term growth opportunities. Short-term volatility is an inherent risk of this approach, but our investment decisions remain anchored in companies’ fundamentals and their potential to generate sustainable returns over time. Portfolio underperformance Against this backdrop, BAEF’s main drag was its concentration in Korean and Taiwanese equities and semiconductor related holdings, which together accounted for 32.3% of the portfolio and approximately 4% of the calculated drag. The Korea ETF and Samsung alone contributed roughly 2%. Korea was particularly affected by the unwinding of AI-related positions. On 15 October, its benchmark equity index fell approximately 8%. Samsung’s weakness came despite guidance for a substantial increase in third-quarter operating profit, suggesting that concerns over valuations, financing conditions and competition outweighed the near-term earnings improvement. The drop was compounded by sharp falls in several Singapore small caps and financials. Addvalue fell 22.9%, UOB Kay-Hian 25.2%, OCBC 10.3%. OCBC faced a specific catalyst when Citi downgraded the stock from “neutral” to “sell”, citing risks to third-quarter earnings, pressure on net interest margins from higher deposit costs, and the potential normalisation of exceptionally strong first-half wealth-related income. Addvalue’s share price weakness is due to profit-taking after a strong run. Singapore’s semiconductor-related suppliers to chipmakers fell harder than the larger chipmakers; Frencken fell 14.9%, UMS 14.8% and AEM 9.9%. Together, these holdings constituted approximately 14% of the portfolio and implied another 2.3% of drag. Like the global technology sell-off, broader concerns over the AI investment cycle were weighing on sentiment beyond individual companies’ reported performance. There were few meaningful offsets in the portfolio as gains elsewhere were insufficient to counter the losses. Why we still hold these stocks Despite the recent weakness, we retain these holdings because the underlying earnings drivers remain relevant to our investment horizon. The sell-off has weakened share prices more than the underlying medium- to long-term investment case. In semiconductors, the correction has coincided with continued growth in demand for AI compute. TSMC’s latest results and guidance pointed to sustained demand for advanced chips, while Samsung’s earnings guidance reflected stronger memory sales and pricing. These developments support maintaining exposure to the sector, although we recognise that strong operating performance does not eliminate valuation risk or the possibility of further share price volatility. Our Singapore semiconductor holdings provide exposure to different parts of this investment cycle. UMS benefits from equipment demand and increasing exposure to advanced packaging, AEM offers participation in increasingly complex semiconductor testing, and Frencken provides a more diversified manufacturing exposure. The rationale for retaining these positions rests on their prospective earnings as customers invest in additional capacity and advanced chip architectures, rather than an expectation that all semiconductor-related stocks will recover together. For the financial holdings, recent operating results provide a basis for distinguishing share price weakness from deterioration in the businesses. OCBC’s wealth-management and other non-interest income have helped offset pressure on lending margins, while its capital position continues to support business growth and distributions. UOB Kay Hian reported substantially higher first-half earnings, supported by stronger trading activity, commission income and interest income. We retain exposure to these earnings streams, while recognising that wealth related revenue and brokerage activity are market sensitive and that recent growth rates may not persist. We retain exposure to Addvalue to the long-term growth in satellite connectivity and space infrastructure. Recent share-price weakness appears to reflect, in part, profit-taking following a strong rally, while continued orders support the underlying growth outlook. In september, Addvalue announced US$15 million of new orders across its space connectivity and advanced digital radio business, bringing its order book to US$20.2 million. Converting these orders into earnings and cash flow remains central to our investment case. Overall, we remain selective and view the decline as a potential opportunity to top up positions rather as a reason to hold every position unchanged. Continued ownership must be supported by company fundamentals, an acceptable valuation, and grounded in earnings growth. Moving forward Looking ahead, we intend to increase exposure to quality large-cap and blue-chip companies to strengthen portfolio resilience amid continued volatility. We will prioritise businesses with sound balance sheets, sustainable earnings and cash flows, and durable competitive advantages. Further market weakness could provide opportunities to build positions at more attractive entry prices, while maintaining a disciplined approach to valuation. Disclaimer : This Document is issued for information and investor awareness purposes only to explain the factors contributing to the changes in BAEF’s NAV. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold units of BAEF. The information provided herein should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision and does not guarantee future performance. Investors should refer to the Fund’s official offering documents and disclosures and carefully assess their own investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decision.

4 分钟阅读阅读更多
2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence
Market Outlook2026年10月1日

2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence

The Fed maintained a restrictive, data-dependent stance through August and subsequently raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% citing persistent inflationary pressures. Updated projections point to the possibility of one further increase in 2026. Elevated long-dated US Treasury yields continue to present a valuation risk particularly for growth, technology and AI-related companies, whose expected cash flows lie further in the future. At the same time, continued corporate earnings delivery and investments in strategic technologies along the tech supply chain have so far helped the global economy absorb tighter financial conditions. Strong earnings guidance from major global technology companies supports the view that investment in data centres, advanced chips and supporting infrastructure remains resilient. Within Asia, performance has diverged meaningfully across countries. Singapore remains the region’s defensible market, with strong banking profitability and wealth management inflows attracting investor interest amid global uncertainty. Taiwan and South Korea’s technology sector continues to be major beneficiaries of surging AI-related demand. On the other hand, confidence towards China’s and Indonesia’s growth outlook remains fragile. China’s slow economic momentum is a result of a weak property market and slow domestic consumption, while Indonesia’s commodity price normalisation and concerns over capital outflows weigh on sentiment. Against this backdrop, maintaining well-diversified exposure across geographies and themes remains important. We continue to be highly selective in stock selection, adhering to a disciplined, bottom-up approach to portfolio construction that prioritises quality and resilience to macroeconomic uncertainty.

1 分钟阅读阅读更多
Banjaran AMC Brings BAEF Investment Opportunities to Investors in Phnom Penh Through 3rd Round Roadshow
路演2026年9月5日

Banjaran AMC Brings BAEF Investment Opportunities to Investors in Phnom Penh Through 3rd Round Roadshow

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc. in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc. and ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch, (Khan Mean Chey, Sangkat Boeng Tumpun 01), successfully hosted the Workshop on “Golden Securities Investment by Opportunities” as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow. The workshop was held at the meeting hall of ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch, (Khan Mean Chey, Sangkat Boeng Tumpun 01) on the morning of 05 September 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc. on the topic “BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

1 分钟阅读阅读更多
2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility
Market Outlook2026年9月1日

2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility

Concerns around the durability of AI-related capital expenditure and intensifying competition triggered a sharp sector sell-off after a mid-July peak. Investor sentiment turned more discerning on the back of earnings season, and questions arose regarding how sustainable the AI investment pace is without eating into cash generation. Capital rotated out of semiconductors and into energy, financials and value stocks, shifting to markets and names seen as less exposed to a single-theme correction. Layered on top was renewed Middle East escalation and its effect on rates expectations. Brent crude spiked back above $100/barrel intermittently after the US reinstated a naval blockade on Iran and announced plans to impose a levy on cargo transiting Hormuz, although the levy was never implemented. This revived inflation concerns and caused markets to price a reduced likelihood of further Fed easing. Elevated US bond yields further weighed on stocks. Looking ahead, renewed conflict or another AI-related pullback could swiftly unwind recent sentiment gains and force a repricing of both rates and earnings expectations. Against this backdrop, we continue to favour a diversified, bottom-up approach that balances exposure to structural AI and technology themes with quality, less crowded names to weather through volatility.

1 分钟阅读阅读更多
Banjaran AMC Expands Securities Investment Awareness Through 3rd Round Roadshow in Svay Rieng
路演2026年8月22日

Banjaran AMC Expands Securities Investment Awareness Through 3rd Round Roadshow in Svay Rieng

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., and ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch (Svay Rieng Province), successfully hosted the Workshop on “Golden Securities Investment by Opportunities” as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow. The workshop was held at the meeting hall of ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch (Svay Rieng Province) on the morning of 22 August 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Taing Hoy, Legal and Compliance Officer of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., on the topic “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

1 分钟阅读阅读更多
Banjaran AMC Strengthens Strategic Partnership with Forte Through BAEF Investment Workshop
活动2026年8月19日

Banjaran AMC Strengthens Strategic Partnership with Forte Through BAEF Investment Workshop

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., successfully organized a workshop on “Golden Investment Opportunities in Securities Sector” for the Management team and staff of Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., on 19 August 2026 at Forte Office, One Park Tower. The workshop provided participants with valuable insights into the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), including its key features, investment strategy, and the opportunities available through investing in a professionally managed fund licensed by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia (SERC). During the session, Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., delivered a presentation on “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”, sharing knowledge on investment opportunities and the benefits of BAEF as part of Cambodia’s growing securities sector. This workshop marks another important milestone under the Strategic Partnership between Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., ACLEDA Securities Plc., Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., with the aim of enhancing investment awareness, strengthening collaboration, and creating opportunities for future business growth. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

1 分钟阅读阅读更多