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市场展望2024年2月5日1 分钟阅读

2024年1月|市场展望:在地缘政治紧张与经济转折中前行

2024年1月|市场展望:在地缘政治紧张与经济转折中前行

随着我们进入2024年,全球金融市场的关注点预计将从债券收益率上升转向利率稳定甚至潜在的宽松方向,尤其是美国联邦储备局 (美联储) 的政策动向。在经历连续三年的紧缩周期后,我们预计美国与欧洲的经济活动将显著放缓,失业率上升。欧洲面对长期衰退的风险尤为突出。尽管受住房等领域的持续通胀压力影响,美国的利率短期内可能维持不变,但地缘政治风险的加剧——例如美国与英国对胡塞武装袭击的空袭回应——可能扰乱全球贸易并推升航运成本。

地缘政治紧张局势:美中关系的关键影响

地缘政治变化,尤其是美中关系的长期紧张,将成为评估全球经济与金融市场表现的核心因素。两大经济体在半导体等关键产业的持续“脱钩”,既带来挑战,也创造新的投资机会。我们预计,这种地缘政治分化将催生更高水平的创新,为部分行业带来新的增长前景。

人工智能 革命:长期结构性投资机遇

以 ChatGPT 等创新技术为代表的生成式人工智能 (AI) 掀起了各行业对人工智能技术的浓厚兴趣。尽管全球 AI 可触达市场规模仍在评估中,我们对其长期增长潜力保持乐观。我们投资组合中的部分人工智能企业已展现良好势头,随着人工智能应用持续扩展,我们也持续寻找更多的长期投资机会。

中国经济复苏:政策托底持续发力

中国经济复苏的动力正在增强,尽管房地产行业仍是拖累,但近期的财政与货币政策已发挥了明显稳定作用。中央经济工作会议提出“积极的财政扩张”以及多项房地产政策调整,均是市场的积极信号。中国央行也推出多项流动性支持措施,包括下调存款准备金率50个基点、降低小微企业贷款利率等。我们认为,这些措施虽属渐进式,但持续推动经济与市场迈向进一步稳定。整体而言,我们对中国2024年的经济与市场前景保持乐观。

美国总统大选:市场潜在影响

今年的美国总统大选无疑将影响经济政策和市场方向,但我们不会对政治结果进行预测。我们的重点仍然是以数据为基础的经济与市场分析。随着大选临近,美国经济预计将更加趋于内向化。


总结:亚洲依然亮眼,美国与欧洲面临压力

总体而言,我们认为亚洲,特别是中国,仍是全球经济的亮点;相比之下,美国与欧洲可能面临增长放缓甚至衰退压力。我们将继续密切关注地缘政治风险,并专注于人工智能与创新等具备长期增长潜力的领域。

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BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF) Performance as of 16 October 2026
公告2026年10月23日

BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF) Performance as of 16 October 2026

Markets in October Since end September, global equities have faced pressure from higher borrowing costs and growing scrutiny of the returns from AI related spending. Stronger than expected US inflation reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, weighing particularly on technology and semiconductor valuations. Elevated oil prices added further pressure on inflation concerns. Overall, technology-heavy Asian markets bore a greater share of the selling in October’s global tech weakness. Our exposure to Asian equities reflects our focus on the region’s long-term growth opportunities. Short-term volatility is an inherent risk of this approach, but our investment decisions remain anchored in companies’ fundamentals and their potential to generate sustainable returns over time. Portfolio underperformance Against this backdrop, BAEF’s main drag was its concentration in Korean and Taiwanese equities and semiconductor related holdings, which together accounted for 32.3% of the portfolio and approximately 4% of the calculated drag. The Korea ETF and Samsung alone contributed roughly 2%. Korea was particularly affected by the unwinding of AI-related positions. On 15 October, its benchmark equity index fell approximately 8%. Samsung’s weakness came despite guidance for a substantial increase in third-quarter operating profit, suggesting that concerns over valuations, financing conditions and competition outweighed the near-term earnings improvement. The drop was compounded by sharp falls in several Singapore small caps and financials. Addvalue fell 22.9%, UOB Kay-Hian 25.2%, OCBC 10.3%. OCBC faced a specific catalyst when Citi downgraded the stock from “neutral” to “sell”, citing risks to third-quarter earnings, pressure on net interest margins from higher deposit costs, and the potential normalisation of exceptionally strong first-half wealth-related income. Addvalue’s share price weakness is due to profit-taking after a strong run. Singapore’s semiconductor-related suppliers to chipmakers fell harder than the larger chipmakers; Frencken fell 14.9%, UMS 14.8% and AEM 9.9%. Together, these holdings constituted approximately 14% of the portfolio and implied another 2.3% of drag. Like the global technology sell-off, broader concerns over the AI investment cycle were weighing on sentiment beyond individual companies’ reported performance. There were few meaningful offsets in the portfolio as gains elsewhere were insufficient to counter the losses. Why we still hold these stocks Despite the recent weakness, we retain these holdings because the underlying earnings drivers remain relevant to our investment horizon. The sell-off has weakened share prices more than the underlying medium- to long-term investment case. In semiconductors, the correction has coincided with continued growth in demand for AI compute. TSMC’s latest results and guidance pointed to sustained demand for advanced chips, while Samsung’s earnings guidance reflected stronger memory sales and pricing. These developments support maintaining exposure to the sector, although we recognise that strong operating performance does not eliminate valuation risk or the possibility of further share price volatility. Our Singapore semiconductor holdings provide exposure to different parts of this investment cycle. UMS benefits from equipment demand and increasing exposure to advanced packaging, AEM offers participation in increasingly complex semiconductor testing, and Frencken provides a more diversified manufacturing exposure. The rationale for retaining these positions rests on their prospective earnings as customers invest in additional capacity and advanced chip architectures, rather than an expectation that all semiconductor-related stocks will recover together. For the financial holdings, recent operating results provide a basis for distinguishing share price weakness from deterioration in the businesses. OCBC’s wealth-management and other non-interest income have helped offset pressure on lending margins, while its capital position continues to support business growth and distributions. UOB Kay Hian reported substantially higher first-half earnings, supported by stronger trading activity, commission income and interest income. We retain exposure to these earnings streams, while recognising that wealth related revenue and brokerage activity are market sensitive and that recent growth rates may not persist. We retain exposure to Addvalue to the long-term growth in satellite connectivity and space infrastructure. Recent share-price weakness appears to reflect, in part, profit-taking following a strong rally, while continued orders support the underlying growth outlook. In september, Addvalue announced US$15 million of new orders across its space connectivity and advanced digital radio business, bringing its order book to US$20.2 million. Converting these orders into earnings and cash flow remains central to our investment case. Overall, we remain selective and view the decline as a potential opportunity to top up positions rather as a reason to hold every position unchanged. Continued ownership must be supported by company fundamentals, an acceptable valuation, and grounded in earnings growth. Moving forward Looking ahead, we intend to increase exposure to quality large-cap and blue-chip companies to strengthen portfolio resilience amid continued volatility. We will prioritise businesses with sound balance sheets, sustainable earnings and cash flows, and durable competitive advantages. Further market weakness could provide opportunities to build positions at more attractive entry prices, while maintaining a disciplined approach to valuation. Disclaimer : This Document is issued for information and investor awareness purposes only to explain the factors contributing to the changes in BAEF’s NAV. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold units of BAEF. The information provided herein should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision and does not guarantee future performance. Investors should refer to the Fund’s official offering documents and disclosures and carefully assess their own investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decision.

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2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence
Market Outlook2026年10月1日

2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence

The Fed maintained a restrictive, data-dependent stance through August and subsequently raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% citing persistent inflationary pressures. Updated projections point to the possibility of one further increase in 2026. Elevated long-dated US Treasury yields continue to present a valuation risk particularly for growth, technology and AI-related companies, whose expected cash flows lie further in the future. At the same time, continued corporate earnings delivery and investments in strategic technologies along the tech supply chain have so far helped the global economy absorb tighter financial conditions. Strong earnings guidance from major global technology companies supports the view that investment in data centres, advanced chips and supporting infrastructure remains resilient. Within Asia, performance has diverged meaningfully across countries. Singapore remains the region’s defensible market, with strong banking profitability and wealth management inflows attracting investor interest amid global uncertainty. Taiwan and South Korea’s technology sector continues to be major beneficiaries of surging AI-related demand. On the other hand, confidence towards China’s and Indonesia’s growth outlook remains fragile. China’s slow economic momentum is a result of a weak property market and slow domestic consumption, while Indonesia’s commodity price normalisation and concerns over capital outflows weigh on sentiment. Against this backdrop, maintaining well-diversified exposure across geographies and themes remains important. We continue to be highly selective in stock selection, adhering to a disciplined, bottom-up approach to portfolio construction that prioritises quality and resilience to macroeconomic uncertainty.

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Banjaran AMC Brings BAEF Investment Opportunities to Investors in Phnom Penh Through 3rd Round Roadshow
路演2026年9月5日

Banjaran AMC Brings BAEF Investment Opportunities to Investors in Phnom Penh Through 3rd Round Roadshow

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc. in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc. and ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch, (Khan Mean Chey, Sangkat Boeng Tumpun 01), successfully hosted the Workshop on “Golden Securities Investment by Opportunities” as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow. The workshop was held at the meeting hall of ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch, (Khan Mean Chey, Sangkat Boeng Tumpun 01) on the morning of 05 September 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc. on the topic “BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility
Market Outlook2026年9月1日

2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility

Concerns around the durability of AI-related capital expenditure and intensifying competition triggered a sharp sector sell-off after a mid-July peak. Investor sentiment turned more discerning on the back of earnings season, and questions arose regarding how sustainable the AI investment pace is without eating into cash generation. Capital rotated out of semiconductors and into energy, financials and value stocks, shifting to markets and names seen as less exposed to a single-theme correction. Layered on top was renewed Middle East escalation and its effect on rates expectations. Brent crude spiked back above $100/barrel intermittently after the US reinstated a naval blockade on Iran and announced plans to impose a levy on cargo transiting Hormuz, although the levy was never implemented. This revived inflation concerns and caused markets to price a reduced likelihood of further Fed easing. Elevated US bond yields further weighed on stocks. Looking ahead, renewed conflict or another AI-related pullback could swiftly unwind recent sentiment gains and force a repricing of both rates and earnings expectations. Against this backdrop, we continue to favour a diversified, bottom-up approach that balances exposure to structural AI and technology themes with quality, less crowded names to weather through volatility.

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Banjaran AMC Expands Securities Investment Awareness Through 3rd Round Roadshow in Svay Rieng
路演2026年8月22日

Banjaran AMC Expands Securities Investment Awareness Through 3rd Round Roadshow in Svay Rieng

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., and ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch (Svay Rieng Province), successfully hosted the Workshop on “Golden Securities Investment by Opportunities” as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow. The workshop was held at the meeting hall of ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch (Svay Rieng Province) on the morning of 22 August 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Taing Hoy, Legal and Compliance Officer of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., on the topic “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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Banjaran AMC Strengthens Strategic Partnership with Forte Through BAEF Investment Workshop
活动2026年8月19日

Banjaran AMC Strengthens Strategic Partnership with Forte Through BAEF Investment Workshop

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., successfully organized a workshop on “Golden Investment Opportunities in Securities Sector” for the Management team and staff of Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., on 19 August 2026 at Forte Office, One Park Tower. The workshop provided participants with valuable insights into the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), including its key features, investment strategy, and the opportunities available through investing in a professionally managed fund licensed by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia (SERC). During the session, Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., delivered a presentation on “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”, sharing knowledge on investment opportunities and the benefits of BAEF as part of Cambodia’s growing securities sector. This workshop marks another important milestone under the Strategic Partnership between Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., ACLEDA Securities Plc., Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., with the aim of enhancing investment awareness, strengthening collaboration, and creating opportunities for future business growth. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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