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市场展望2025年2月3日1 分钟阅读

2025年1月市场展望:应对全球格局变化的策略

2025年1月市场展望:应对全球格局变化的策略

在我们上一次的更新中,我们简要分享了对2025年的展望,并维持此前观点:市场风险将主要由三大因素驱动——美国利率轨迹的不确定性、我们关注板块中美国股市估值偏高,以及全球地缘政治风险升温。这些因素可能导致股市波动率高于近年来的水平。然而,这并不意味着股价会骤跌,我们只是认为在资产配置和股票选择上应采取更加谨慎的策略。


美国股市受益于其经济韧性以及在人工智能 (AI) 技术领域的领先地位。这导致市场对盈利的预期已充分反映在股价中,但考虑到潜在关税风险及整体经济降温,我们认为这一预期偏乐观。有观点认为,特朗普政府可能通过减税来提振企业盈利并控制利率,尽管通胀风险仍在。我们认为,要同时协调这些措施以利好美国经济将存在挑战,任何重大政策公告、盈利不及预期或经济数据意外都可能引发市场短期剧烈反应。


对于东盟国家而言,“中国+1”的概念有利于其经济,但他们可能仍无法完全免受美国关税影响,因为特朗普已表示关注对欧盟和加拿大等盟友征收关税的可能性。此外,近期美国技术出口管制趋严,东盟国家并未列入获准无限制获取先进半导体的“美国盟友”名单。


在其他发达市场,如主要欧盟国家及日本,我们认为其经济仍在努力实现实质性复苏。结合持续的地缘政治环境,我们将继续在这些地区采取精选增配策略。


在我们关注的国家中,我们认为中国可能成为2025年的亮点,前提是政府采取有力且果断的措施。尽管官方已宣布刺激经济的宏伟目标,但我们认为具体行动尚未落实。在显著增加对该地区的投资比重前,我们将关注中国关键政策会议是否出台可执行计划。

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BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF) Performance as of 16 October 2026
公告2026年10月23日

BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF) Performance as of 16 October 2026

Markets in October Since end September, global equities have faced pressure from higher borrowing costs and growing scrutiny of the returns from AI related spending. Stronger than expected US inflation reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, weighing particularly on technology and semiconductor valuations. Elevated oil prices added further pressure on inflation concerns. Overall, technology-heavy Asian markets bore a greater share of the selling in October’s global tech weakness. Our exposure to Asian equities reflects our focus on the region’s long-term growth opportunities. Short-term volatility is an inherent risk of this approach, but our investment decisions remain anchored in companies’ fundamentals and their potential to generate sustainable returns over time. Portfolio underperformance Against this backdrop, BAEF’s main drag was its concentration in Korean and Taiwanese equities and semiconductor related holdings, which together accounted for 32.3% of the portfolio and approximately 4% of the calculated drag. The Korea ETF and Samsung alone contributed roughly 2%. Korea was particularly affected by the unwinding of AI-related positions. On 15 October, its benchmark equity index fell approximately 8%. Samsung’s weakness came despite guidance for a substantial increase in third-quarter operating profit, suggesting that concerns over valuations, financing conditions and competition outweighed the near-term earnings improvement. The drop was compounded by sharp falls in several Singapore small caps and financials. Addvalue fell 22.9%, UOB Kay-Hian 25.2%, OCBC 10.3%. OCBC faced a specific catalyst when Citi downgraded the stock from “neutral” to “sell”, citing risks to third-quarter earnings, pressure on net interest margins from higher deposit costs, and the potential normalisation of exceptionally strong first-half wealth-related income. Addvalue’s share price weakness is due to profit-taking after a strong run. Singapore’s semiconductor-related suppliers to chipmakers fell harder than the larger chipmakers; Frencken fell 14.9%, UMS 14.8% and AEM 9.9%. Together, these holdings constituted approximately 14% of the portfolio and implied another 2.3% of drag. Like the global technology sell-off, broader concerns over the AI investment cycle were weighing on sentiment beyond individual companies’ reported performance. There were few meaningful offsets in the portfolio as gains elsewhere were insufficient to counter the losses. Why we still hold these stocks Despite the recent weakness, we retain these holdings because the underlying earnings drivers remain relevant to our investment horizon. The sell-off has weakened share prices more than the underlying medium- to long-term investment case. In semiconductors, the correction has coincided with continued growth in demand for AI compute. TSMC’s latest results and guidance pointed to sustained demand for advanced chips, while Samsung’s earnings guidance reflected stronger memory sales and pricing. These developments support maintaining exposure to the sector, although we recognise that strong operating performance does not eliminate valuation risk or the possibility of further share price volatility. Our Singapore semiconductor holdings provide exposure to different parts of this investment cycle. UMS benefits from equipment demand and increasing exposure to advanced packaging, AEM offers participation in increasingly complex semiconductor testing, and Frencken provides a more diversified manufacturing exposure. The rationale for retaining these positions rests on their prospective earnings as customers invest in additional capacity and advanced chip architectures, rather than an expectation that all semiconductor-related stocks will recover together. For the financial holdings, recent operating results provide a basis for distinguishing share price weakness from deterioration in the businesses. OCBC’s wealth-management and other non-interest income have helped offset pressure on lending margins, while its capital position continues to support business growth and distributions. UOB Kay Hian reported substantially higher first-half earnings, supported by stronger trading activity, commission income and interest income. We retain exposure to these earnings streams, while recognising that wealth related revenue and brokerage activity are market sensitive and that recent growth rates may not persist. We retain exposure to Addvalue to the long-term growth in satellite connectivity and space infrastructure. Recent share-price weakness appears to reflect, in part, profit-taking following a strong rally, while continued orders support the underlying growth outlook. In september, Addvalue announced US$15 million of new orders across its space connectivity and advanced digital radio business, bringing its order book to US$20.2 million. Converting these orders into earnings and cash flow remains central to our investment case. Overall, we remain selective and view the decline as a potential opportunity to top up positions rather as a reason to hold every position unchanged. Continued ownership must be supported by company fundamentals, an acceptable valuation, and grounded in earnings growth. Moving forward Looking ahead, we intend to increase exposure to quality large-cap and blue-chip companies to strengthen portfolio resilience amid continued volatility. We will prioritise businesses with sound balance sheets, sustainable earnings and cash flows, and durable competitive advantages. Further market weakness could provide opportunities to build positions at more attractive entry prices, while maintaining a disciplined approach to valuation. Disclaimer : This Document is issued for information and investor awareness purposes only to explain the factors contributing to the changes in BAEF’s NAV. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold units of BAEF. The information provided herein should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision and does not guarantee future performance. Investors should refer to the Fund’s official offering documents and disclosures and carefully assess their own investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decision.

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2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence
Market Outlook2026年10月1日

2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence

The Fed maintained a restrictive, data-dependent stance through August and subsequently raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% citing persistent inflationary pressures. Updated projections point to the possibility of one further increase in 2026. Elevated long-dated US Treasury yields continue to present a valuation risk particularly for growth, technology and AI-related companies, whose expected cash flows lie further in the future. At the same time, continued corporate earnings delivery and investments in strategic technologies along the tech supply chain have so far helped the global economy absorb tighter financial conditions. Strong earnings guidance from major global technology companies supports the view that investment in data centres, advanced chips and supporting infrastructure remains resilient. Within Asia, performance has diverged meaningfully across countries. Singapore remains the region’s defensible market, with strong banking profitability and wealth management inflows attracting investor interest amid global uncertainty. Taiwan and South Korea’s technology sector continues to be major beneficiaries of surging AI-related demand. On the other hand, confidence towards China’s and Indonesia’s growth outlook remains fragile. China’s slow economic momentum is a result of a weak property market and slow domestic consumption, while Indonesia’s commodity price normalisation and concerns over capital outflows weigh on sentiment. Against this backdrop, maintaining well-diversified exposure across geographies and themes remains important. We continue to be highly selective in stock selection, adhering to a disciplined, bottom-up approach to portfolio construction that prioritises quality and resilience to macroeconomic uncertainty.

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Banjaran AMC Brings BAEF Investment Opportunities to Investors in Phnom Penh Through 3rd Round Roadshow
路演2026年9月5日

Banjaran AMC Brings BAEF Investment Opportunities to Investors in Phnom Penh Through 3rd Round Roadshow

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc. in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc. and ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch, (Khan Mean Chey, Sangkat Boeng Tumpun 01), successfully hosted the Workshop on “Golden Securities Investment by Opportunities” as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow. The workshop was held at the meeting hall of ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch, (Khan Mean Chey, Sangkat Boeng Tumpun 01) on the morning of 05 September 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc. on the topic “BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility
Market Outlook2026年9月1日

2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility

Concerns around the durability of AI-related capital expenditure and intensifying competition triggered a sharp sector sell-off after a mid-July peak. Investor sentiment turned more discerning on the back of earnings season, and questions arose regarding how sustainable the AI investment pace is without eating into cash generation. Capital rotated out of semiconductors and into energy, financials and value stocks, shifting to markets and names seen as less exposed to a single-theme correction. Layered on top was renewed Middle East escalation and its effect on rates expectations. Brent crude spiked back above $100/barrel intermittently after the US reinstated a naval blockade on Iran and announced plans to impose a levy on cargo transiting Hormuz, although the levy was never implemented. This revived inflation concerns and caused markets to price a reduced likelihood of further Fed easing. Elevated US bond yields further weighed on stocks. Looking ahead, renewed conflict or another AI-related pullback could swiftly unwind recent sentiment gains and force a repricing of both rates and earnings expectations. Against this backdrop, we continue to favour a diversified, bottom-up approach that balances exposure to structural AI and technology themes with quality, less crowded names to weather through volatility.

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Banjaran AMC Expands Securities Investment Awareness Through 3rd Round Roadshow in Svay Rieng
路演2026年8月22日

Banjaran AMC Expands Securities Investment Awareness Through 3rd Round Roadshow in Svay Rieng

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., and ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch (Svay Rieng Province), successfully hosted the Workshop on “Golden Securities Investment by Opportunities” as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow. The workshop was held at the meeting hall of ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch (Svay Rieng Province) on the morning of 22 August 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Taing Hoy, Legal and Compliance Officer of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., on the topic “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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Banjaran AMC Strengthens Strategic Partnership with Forte Through BAEF Investment Workshop
活动2026年8月19日

Banjaran AMC Strengthens Strategic Partnership with Forte Through BAEF Investment Workshop

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., successfully organized a workshop on “Golden Investment Opportunities in Securities Sector” for the Management team and staff of Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., on 19 August 2026 at Forte Office, One Park Tower. The workshop provided participants with valuable insights into the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), including its key features, investment strategy, and the opportunities available through investing in a professionally managed fund licensed by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia (SERC). During the session, Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., delivered a presentation on “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”, sharing knowledge on investment opportunities and the benefits of BAEF as part of Cambodia’s growing securities sector. This workshop marks another important milestone under the Strategic Partnership between Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., ACLEDA Securities Plc., Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., with the aim of enhancing investment awareness, strengthening collaboration, and creating opportunities for future business growth. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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