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市场展望2025年6月2日1 分钟阅读

2025年5月市场展望:在贸易紧张与货币政策谨慎下应对波动

2025年5月市场展望:在贸易紧张与货币政策谨慎下应对波动

全球市场
以MSCI世界指数为代表的全球股市在4月上涨了0.74%。涨幅主要由非美股市场的强劲表现以及全球贸易紧张局势的暂时缓解所推动。尽管美国市场在宣布全面新关税后中旬经历了剧烈波动,但部分回撤 (中国除外) 有助于恢复投资者信心。大型科技股的韧性以及向防御性板块的轮动也对涨势有所贡献。此外,对美国以外部分发达市场货币宽松的预期,为全球股市提供了支撑,使其在地缘政治与贸易不确定性持续存在的情况下得以回升。
 

总体展望与观点
4月初,随着“解放日关税”的意外推出,市场波动明显加剧。该关税对所有进口产品统一征收10%,同时对部分国家实施更高税率。市场迅速作出反应——股市下跌,国债收益率下降,避险情绪蔓延。随后,美国决定暂停大部分关税 (中国除外),市场出现短暂反弹。然而,中国的迅速反制再次激化贸易紧张局势,市场再次承压。尽管波动与不确定性依然存在,股市随后仍表现出强劲复苏,得益于两大经济体之间初步达成的贸易休战。投资者情绪受到重启谈判前景的提振,推动了广泛的市场反弹。与此同时,美联储选择维持利率不变,采取谨慎、依赖数据的策略,以评估贸易干扰的更广泛影响。

然而,在消费者信心低迷、宏观经济逆风持续,以及美中贸易谈判脆弱的背景下,经济衰退风险仍然偏高。美联储维持利率不变,进一步体现其“观望”态度;与此同时,穆迪近期下调信用评级,也再次引发市场对美国长期财政脆弱性的关注,为市场前景增添了不确定性。

尽管如此,我们仍保持谨慎乐观。虽然整体经济环境仍受贸易政策不确定性和政治波动影响,但美中持续接触的可能性为局势降温和市场稳定带来一定希望。在这一脆弱的贸易动态、财政信誉趋紧以及美联储耐心观望的背景下,我们将继续通过纪律性的投资组合配置,应对短期波动。我们将密切关注事态发展,认识到贸易关系、货币政策和政治动向将在未来数月继续成为全球经济增长和市场稳定的关键驱动因素。在当前环境下,我们认为在政策明朗之前,保持投资组合的稳健与谨慎调整仍是明智之选。
 

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BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF) Performance as of 16 October 2026
公告2026年10月23日

BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF) Performance as of 16 October 2026

Markets in October Since end September, global equities have faced pressure from higher borrowing costs and growing scrutiny of the returns from AI related spending. Stronger than expected US inflation reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, weighing particularly on technology and semiconductor valuations. Elevated oil prices added further pressure on inflation concerns. Overall, technology-heavy Asian markets bore a greater share of the selling in October’s global tech weakness. Our exposure to Asian equities reflects our focus on the region’s long-term growth opportunities. Short-term volatility is an inherent risk of this approach, but our investment decisions remain anchored in companies’ fundamentals and their potential to generate sustainable returns over time. Portfolio underperformance Against this backdrop, BAEF’s main drag was its concentration in Korean and Taiwanese equities and semiconductor related holdings, which together accounted for 32.3% of the portfolio and approximately 4% of the calculated drag. The Korea ETF and Samsung alone contributed roughly 2%. Korea was particularly affected by the unwinding of AI-related positions. On 15 October, its benchmark equity index fell approximately 8%. Samsung’s weakness came despite guidance for a substantial increase in third-quarter operating profit, suggesting that concerns over valuations, financing conditions and competition outweighed the near-term earnings improvement. The drop was compounded by sharp falls in several Singapore small caps and financials. Addvalue fell 22.9%, UOB Kay-Hian 25.2%, OCBC 10.3%. OCBC faced a specific catalyst when Citi downgraded the stock from “neutral” to “sell”, citing risks to third-quarter earnings, pressure on net interest margins from higher deposit costs, and the potential normalisation of exceptionally strong first-half wealth-related income. Addvalue’s share price weakness is due to profit-taking after a strong run. Singapore’s semiconductor-related suppliers to chipmakers fell harder than the larger chipmakers; Frencken fell 14.9%, UMS 14.8% and AEM 9.9%. Together, these holdings constituted approximately 14% of the portfolio and implied another 2.3% of drag. Like the global technology sell-off, broader concerns over the AI investment cycle were weighing on sentiment beyond individual companies’ reported performance. There were few meaningful offsets in the portfolio as gains elsewhere were insufficient to counter the losses. Why we still hold these stocks Despite the recent weakness, we retain these holdings because the underlying earnings drivers remain relevant to our investment horizon. The sell-off has weakened share prices more than the underlying medium- to long-term investment case. In semiconductors, the correction has coincided with continued growth in demand for AI compute. TSMC’s latest results and guidance pointed to sustained demand for advanced chips, while Samsung’s earnings guidance reflected stronger memory sales and pricing. These developments support maintaining exposure to the sector, although we recognise that strong operating performance does not eliminate valuation risk or the possibility of further share price volatility. Our Singapore semiconductor holdings provide exposure to different parts of this investment cycle. UMS benefits from equipment demand and increasing exposure to advanced packaging, AEM offers participation in increasingly complex semiconductor testing, and Frencken provides a more diversified manufacturing exposure. The rationale for retaining these positions rests on their prospective earnings as customers invest in additional capacity and advanced chip architectures, rather than an expectation that all semiconductor-related stocks will recover together. For the financial holdings, recent operating results provide a basis for distinguishing share price weakness from deterioration in the businesses. OCBC’s wealth-management and other non-interest income have helped offset pressure on lending margins, while its capital position continues to support business growth and distributions. UOB Kay Hian reported substantially higher first-half earnings, supported by stronger trading activity, commission income and interest income. We retain exposure to these earnings streams, while recognising that wealth related revenue and brokerage activity are market sensitive and that recent growth rates may not persist. We retain exposure to Addvalue to the long-term growth in satellite connectivity and space infrastructure. Recent share-price weakness appears to reflect, in part, profit-taking following a strong rally, while continued orders support the underlying growth outlook. In september, Addvalue announced US$15 million of new orders across its space connectivity and advanced digital radio business, bringing its order book to US$20.2 million. Converting these orders into earnings and cash flow remains central to our investment case. Overall, we remain selective and view the decline as a potential opportunity to top up positions rather as a reason to hold every position unchanged. Continued ownership must be supported by company fundamentals, an acceptable valuation, and grounded in earnings growth. Moving forward Looking ahead, we intend to increase exposure to quality large-cap and blue-chip companies to strengthen portfolio resilience amid continued volatility. We will prioritise businesses with sound balance sheets, sustainable earnings and cash flows, and durable competitive advantages. Further market weakness could provide opportunities to build positions at more attractive entry prices, while maintaining a disciplined approach to valuation. Disclaimer : This Document is issued for information and investor awareness purposes only to explain the factors contributing to the changes in BAEF’s NAV. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold units of BAEF. The information provided herein should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision and does not guarantee future performance. Investors should refer to the Fund’s official offering documents and disclosures and carefully assess their own investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decision.

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2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence
Market Outlook2026年10月1日

2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence

The Fed maintained a restrictive, data-dependent stance through August and subsequently raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% citing persistent inflationary pressures. Updated projections point to the possibility of one further increase in 2026. Elevated long-dated US Treasury yields continue to present a valuation risk particularly for growth, technology and AI-related companies, whose expected cash flows lie further in the future. At the same time, continued corporate earnings delivery and investments in strategic technologies along the tech supply chain have so far helped the global economy absorb tighter financial conditions. Strong earnings guidance from major global technology companies supports the view that investment in data centres, advanced chips and supporting infrastructure remains resilient. Within Asia, performance has diverged meaningfully across countries. Singapore remains the region’s defensible market, with strong banking profitability and wealth management inflows attracting investor interest amid global uncertainty. Taiwan and South Korea’s technology sector continues to be major beneficiaries of surging AI-related demand. On the other hand, confidence towards China’s and Indonesia’s growth outlook remains fragile. China’s slow economic momentum is a result of a weak property market and slow domestic consumption, while Indonesia’s commodity price normalisation and concerns over capital outflows weigh on sentiment. Against this backdrop, maintaining well-diversified exposure across geographies and themes remains important. We continue to be highly selective in stock selection, adhering to a disciplined, bottom-up approach to portfolio construction that prioritises quality and resilience to macroeconomic uncertainty.

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Banjaran AMC Brings BAEF Investment Opportunities to Investors in Phnom Penh Through 3rd Round Roadshow
路演2026年9月5日

Banjaran AMC Brings BAEF Investment Opportunities to Investors in Phnom Penh Through 3rd Round Roadshow

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc. in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc. and ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch, (Khan Mean Chey, Sangkat Boeng Tumpun 01), successfully hosted the Workshop on “Golden Securities Investment by Opportunities” as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow. The workshop was held at the meeting hall of ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch, (Khan Mean Chey, Sangkat Boeng Tumpun 01) on the morning of 05 September 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc. on the topic “BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility
Market Outlook2026年9月1日

2026 August Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility

Concerns around the durability of AI-related capital expenditure and intensifying competition triggered a sharp sector sell-off after a mid-July peak. Investor sentiment turned more discerning on the back of earnings season, and questions arose regarding how sustainable the AI investment pace is without eating into cash generation. Capital rotated out of semiconductors and into energy, financials and value stocks, shifting to markets and names seen as less exposed to a single-theme correction. Layered on top was renewed Middle East escalation and its effect on rates expectations. Brent crude spiked back above $100/barrel intermittently after the US reinstated a naval blockade on Iran and announced plans to impose a levy on cargo transiting Hormuz, although the levy was never implemented. This revived inflation concerns and caused markets to price a reduced likelihood of further Fed easing. Elevated US bond yields further weighed on stocks. Looking ahead, renewed conflict or another AI-related pullback could swiftly unwind recent sentiment gains and force a repricing of both rates and earnings expectations. Against this backdrop, we continue to favour a diversified, bottom-up approach that balances exposure to structural AI and technology themes with quality, less crowded names to weather through volatility.

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Banjaran AMC Expands Securities Investment Awareness Through 3rd Round Roadshow in Svay Rieng
路演2026年8月22日

Banjaran AMC Expands Securities Investment Awareness Through 3rd Round Roadshow in Svay Rieng

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., and ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch (Svay Rieng Province), successfully hosted the Workshop on “Golden Securities Investment by Opportunities” as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow. The workshop was held at the meeting hall of ACLEDA Bank Plc. Local Branch (Svay Rieng Province) on the morning of 22 August 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Taing Hoy, Legal and Compliance Officer of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., on the topic “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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Banjaran AMC Strengthens Strategic Partnership with Forte Through BAEF Investment Workshop
活动2026年8月19日

Banjaran AMC Strengthens Strategic Partnership with Forte Through BAEF Investment Workshop

Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., successfully organized a workshop on “Golden Investment Opportunities in Securities Sector” for the Management team and staff of Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., on 19 August 2026 at Forte Office, One Park Tower. The workshop provided participants with valuable insights into the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), including its key features, investment strategy, and the opportunities available through investing in a professionally managed fund licensed by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia (SERC). During the session, Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., delivered a presentation on “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”, sharing knowledge on investment opportunities and the benefits of BAEF as part of Cambodia’s growing securities sector. This workshop marks another important milestone under the Strategic Partnership between Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., ACLEDA Securities Plc., Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., with the aim of enhancing investment awareness, strengthening collaboration, and creating opportunities for future business growth. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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